line with the forecast for the year of 4-4.5%. It is difficult to talk about the fourth quarter yet, because we do not even have the main indicators from Rosstat for October. There are only operational sales goals: how to set them for salespeople? [step by step] and market indicators (plus rail transport, electricity), a rather limit set of indicators. In general, what we know about October fully confirms what the board of directors includ in the forecast for this year. There is nothing particularly interesting to add here — plus 4-4.5%. Of course, non-working days will be subtracted from the fourth quarter, but in terms of the year, most likely, this will not be a very significant figure.
The Central Bank concerned about the situation
on the labor market now? How high are the risks from record low unemployment, rising wages, and how high is the inflationary effect of this factor?
In October, it was noted that the board of directors
was closely monitoring the situation on the labor market, but at the moment we still do not qualify the situation as “labor market overheating”. If you look at the growth rate of nominal wages (year-on-year about 8%, slightly higher), this is generally within the range of their the power of collaboration growth in 2016-2019. Yes, in some industries there is indeed a shortage of specialists, the number of vacancies is significantly higher than it was two years ago, but agb directory as of now, this does not put any excess pressure on the dynamics of wages. Therefore, for now we do not consider this as a pro-inflationary factor, but we certainly understand, seeing this picture, that the balance of risks is shifted towards pro-inflationary ones. We are monitoring it, as are other central banks.