Since you expect annual inflation to the 7 biggest lies about sales remain above your target for most of next year, what will happen to inflation expectations? Will they also remain elevated for most of next year? With what lag after inflation slows down might they begin to decline?
A very long history of inflation targeting
and the behavior of inflation expectations in the context of inflation that is returning to the target. In general, it is clear that inflation expectations do follow the annual inflation indicator quite synchronously. And the observed inflation behaves in approximately the same way. It is important that in terms of the direction of movement, it will be more or less synchronous. An open question is how fast this movement will be.
The inflation observed by the population
Digher than that measured by Rosstat. And it follows the price dynamics of the 10% of the most rapidly rising goods quite closely. The expected inflation already depends on this inflation. If this “upper tail” of the price growth rate slows down faster than the main inflation, and most likely this will happen, because the attenuation of temporary factors is associated precisely with the fact that this “tail” will return to normal, then we can expect that, in general, inflation expectations will decrease the fundamental difference between synchronously, but faster than the overall annual inflation. For now, this is a hypothesis, probably, the risks are shifted towards the fact that this will happen more agb directory slowly. Probably, for now, in our decisions on the monetary policy, we are not ready to count on a very rapid decrease in inflation expectations.