The future, because it is impossible to digital advertising how to create influence the past. But current inflation is also important: it largely determines inflation expectations, and they determine future inflation. And, of course, decisions on the rate are not just a reaction to increased figures — we see the risks that inflation may significantly and for a long time deviate from the target, including due to the growth of inflation expectations.
We do not see any major risks
of inflation flying down, but we are acting carefully. And you saw that our last rate decision was 0.25%, although many in the market expected 0.5%. Much will depend on what data will be received. Therefore, in conditions of such uncertainty, we decided to move at a standard pace.
Nevertheless, in our assessment
pro-inflationary risks still prevail. Of hse university among top course, a number of disinflationary risks may also materialize, we noted them in our release. But, in our opinion, inflation will return to 4%, our america email target, only in the second half of next year.
“The level of vaccination is insufficient”
— To what extent does the tightening of the monetary policy currently affect economic growth? According to the Central Bank’s forecast, this year there will be a 4–4.5% recovery of GDP, but then the growth rate will slow down.